Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby Ray W » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:15 pm

dany wrote:Hectic and sad weekend for us. Wife is on way back to Russia with a good friend from Namibia. Black boxes found, still not much. All leaning now to severe icing . It was hectic days for the airports due to exstreme cold weather and heavy snow. Wife,s sister was on another flight booked that was canceled due to weather,so she and fiance took this flight. Most burned beyond recognition,will take long time to identify via DNA. Very tragic for families,no burial soon for most.Sorry, cannot write more.


So very sorry to read this Dany. My condolences to all.
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby Deanw » Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:23 pm

Dany, condolences to you and the family.

12 Feb 2018: News24
Investigators hunt for clues over Russian passenger plane crash

Investigators will examine on Monday numerous possible causes of one of Russia's worst ever aviation accidents that saw a passenger plane carrying 71 people crash near Moscow minutes after take-off, killing everyone on board.

Russia's Investigative Committee said it would consider explanations including human error, technical failure and weather conditions, as the country has experienced record snowfall in recent weeks. But it did not mention the possibility of terrorism.

The Antonov An-148 plane went down in the Ramensky district on the outskirts of Moscow at 14:48 on Sunday after taking off from Domodedovo airport in the capital.

"Sixty-five passengers and six crew members were on board, and all of them died," Russia's office of transport investigations said in a statement.

Three children were among the fatalities on a list published by Russian authorities.

The flight was operated by the domestic Saratov Airlines and was headed for Orsk, a city in the Ural mountains.

More than 400 people and 70 vehicles had been deployed to the crash site, the country's emergency ministry said.

The site was enveloped in heavy snow, making it difficult to access, with emergency workers forced to park their vehicles and reach the wreckage by foot. Others used snowmobiles and drones to survey the scene.

Russian transport minister Maksim Sokolov said "genetic expertise" would be needed to help identify the victims, adding that it could "take two or three months".

'Shock wave'

"I felt a shock wave," Maria, a resident of a village near the crash site, told AFP.

"The windows shook," she said.

The transport investigations office said the plane disappeared from radar screens around four minutes after take-off.

A regional official said the aircraft's black box had been retrieved.

The Russian-made plane was reportedly seven years old and bought by Saratov Airlines from another Russian airline a year ago.

Saratov was founded in the 1930s and flies to 35 Russian cities. Its hub is Saratov Central Airport in southern Russia.

The governor of the Orenburg region, where the plane was heading, told Russian media that "more than 60 people" on board the plane were from the region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered "his profound condolences to those who lost their relatives in the crash," his spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

Putin also cancelled plans to travel to Sochi to meet with Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas. Instead, the meeting will take place in Moscow.

Grieving relatives

Local media website Ural56.ru in the Orenburg region showed footage of distressed relatives at Orsk airport, where the plane had been due to land.

Andrei Odintsov, the mayor of Orsk, told Russian state television that six psychologists and four ambulances with medics were working with the families in the small airport.

Orsk is the second biggest city in the Orenburg region, near Russia's border with Kazakhstan.

A crisis centre was also set up at Domodedovo, Moscow's second-largest airport in terms of passenger numbers.

Russia has suffered numerous plane crashes, with airlines often operating ageing aircraft in dangerous flying conditions.

A light aircraft crashed in November in Russia's far east, killing six people on board.

In December 2016 a military plane carrying Russia's famed Red Army Choir crashed after taking off from the Black Sea resort of Sochi, killing all 92 people on board.

The choir had been due to give a concert to Russian troops operating in Syria.

Pilot error was blamed for that crash.

In March 2016, all 62 passengers died when a FlyDubai jet crashed in bad weather during an aborted landing at Rostov-on-Don airport.
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby Spoke Eagle » Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:43 pm

Condolances Dany.

Hi-Jack: what does the law/rules say if you decide you don't want the pilots to take-off as Apollo described and insist on returning to the
terminal?
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby dany » Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:06 pm

Thank you all.
No news from briefing,but one aspect that been now confirmed. Due to all the commotion of delays, and whatever, PIC waived de-icing(to prevent further delays). And plane made already soem flights, so, everything was below freezing temps. And the An-148 being a high wing body, only way to inspect for ice to to actually have access to the top of the wings. Also speculation that icing might have interfere with the high tailplane.
Last edited by dany on Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby tansg » Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:13 pm

Condolences dany.

Yes it has been a long and colder than normal winter in Siberia this year. A friend recently flew over the pole and central Siberia and the temperature was a chilly ISA -90 or a SAT of -70C at FL350. Ice is always your enemy in those conditions.
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby Thermalator » Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:16 pm

sounds like pitot tubes....but surely pilots would be wary & ready for that in such weather ??

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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby Sea Rescue » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:05 pm

Hi Dany,
Sorry to hear about your relatives being onboard. Something I always find incredibly interesting is that - EXTREME weather guarantees ship wrecks and airplane crashes - 10/10 times. Basically it is a DEAD CERTAINTY !!!

Yet nobody in authority steps in to say : "That's it - conditions are so far below minima, we are cancelling this flight or this sailing ? "

Here I must hasten to add that often ships are so far from any safe haven that they ,simply put - " have to fight the storm" ?

But I read in a post above of another airline that cancelled their flight due to weather ? WISE OPERATOR !! Even paying for Hotel accommodation for the pax would be miles cheaper than settling claims ? - and trying to prevent a "bad reputation ???

Suddenly everyone is trying to find the answer to : "What caused the crash ?" That answer is "easy-peasy" as Kulula would say : "THE WEATHER" - nothing else. So what - whether the frozen pitot tubes or the overwing ICE layer or the whatever - THAT AIRPLANE SHOULD NOT HAVE TAKEN OFF - or been ALLOWED TO TAKE OFF !!!

In Cape Town harbour ship's captains often request clearance to sail for their destination in foul weather - guess what ?? Port Captain simply says :" Sorry Sir, the Port is closed until further notice. Please keep your engines off - we will notify you 2 hours before you can be cleared to sail !! - END of STORY !

I am prepared to bet anyone good money that 2 minutes after take-off the crew REGRETTED ever having done so ?? - and now everyone and his Dog are trying to apportion blame ?? The BLAME should go to the authorities - who should be there to assist Airline Captains in their SAFE DECISION making !!

The easiest thing in aviation is to blame the crew, or the Ice, or the frozen pitot-tube - after the accident - but preventative decision making sure sucks !
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby jimdavis » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:21 pm

Sorry Johann, for once I can't agree with you here.

I think the only time we can claim that weather causes an accident is when it is UNEXPECTED weather.

These guy knew what they were heading into - so I would say the accident was caused by the PILOTS electing to fly into bad weather.

Of course that may not be the case at all - it's just based on info available at the moment.

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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby Deanw » Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:58 am

13 Feb 2018: Flight Global
Crashed An-148 pitot-static sensors left unheated

Preliminary analysis of flight-data recordings from the crashed Saratov Airlines Antonov An-148 indicate that the heating system for the jet's pitot-static pressure sensors was not operating at any point.

As the aircraft climbed out of Moscow Domodedovo its crew, presented with unreliable airspeed information, turned off the autopilot and attempted to fly manually before the jet dived into a field near the village of Argunovo.

Data from 16 flights has been downloaded from the recorder, and the Interstate Aviation Committee says that the heating system had been switched on before take-off for all 15 flights prior to the ill-fated service to Orsk on 11 February.

Investigators state that the aircraft took off at 14:21 local time. At a height of 130-150m (430-490ft) the autopilot was engaged, and the flaps were retracted at 550m.

Some 2min 30s into the flight – as the aircraft reached 1,300m – differences in the airspeed readings, between the captain's air data system and that of the back-up system, began to appear at about 250kt. The recording did not include information from the first officer's system.

There were no significant differences in the displayed altitudes from the systems.

After about 25s the captain's system was reading some 16kt higher than the back-up, and the crew received a comparison alert lasting 10s.

As the aircraft reached 2,000m there was another comparison alert – but in this instance the back-up system showed the higher speed, which was increasing, while the captain's was declining.

In response, the crew disengaged the autopilot and flew the jet manually.

The inquiry says the captain's speed reading continued to deteriorate until it reached zero, 34s after the autopilot was switched off, while the reading from the back-up showed 290-300kt.

For some 50s after the autopilot was disengaged the aircraft flew at heights varying from 1,700-1,900m and experienced changes in vertical loading.

The captain's speed reading remained at zero and that of the back-up system started to fall sharply, and the aircraft began to pitch some 30-35° nose-down.

As the An-148 dived its back-up speed reading increased rapidly, reaching some 430kt, before the aircraft struck the ground just after 14:27, having been airborne for only around 6min. The aircraft was 30° nose-down at impact and, in the final seconds of flight, had entered a 25° right bank. The speed reading on the captain's system had remained at zero.

The inquiry says that this preliminary recorded information – and analysis of previous similar events – points to incorrect data on the crew's airspeed indicators, apparently the result of pitot-static sensor icing.

Investigators have yet to determine why the pitot-static heating system was not active. The Interstate Aviation Committee says the inquiry will look at the cockpit-voice recording to understand the actions of the pilots, and will study the heating system for possible failure.
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby wysiwyg » Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:06 am

What is BAD weather ? It depends on your "normal".
If you have lived and operated in Russian type of conditions all your life, to them it is normal. They EXPECT the weather to be bad and it will take "extremes" to trigger alarm bells for them. Up north people push it all the time because the job has to be done and 99.99 percent of the time it works.

Of course those who live it everyday, AND SUCCEED, see it differently to those that can just stay indoors in their comfy arm chairs and sprout "it shouldn't happen" , " why did he do it", "stupid pilot" .....................

Of course there are procedures to follow but mistakes are made primarily due to:
1. Pressure on the pilot. This aviation operating culture starts when you get your com because there is always someone else who is prepared to do it. Lots of heros out there.
2. Fatigue. Generally this element is getting worse and will cause many more crashes.
3. Reducing experience levels of Captains. This will also get worse.
4. Technical failures in flight and pressure to go with NO GO items. The 'nicest' people put pressure on pilot's to go with No Go snags. A few years our CEO would phone us Captains to put pressure on us to go with no go items. He actually fired a couple of pilots telephonically. I would say to him, if you are convinced it is safe to go and as the CEO you accept responsibility, send me a fax stating that and I will depart immediately. I would then hear a click! :-) The question is, does it still happen ...... ?
There will always be Pilot Error. The question is WHY and who should be held accountable??

Rant off.
ANYWAY, I wasn't there ..........

RIP and condolences
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby V5 - LEO » Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:57 am

wysiwyg wrote:What is BAD weather ? It depends on your "normal".
If you have lived and operated in Russian type of conditions all your life, to them it is normal. They EXPECT the weather to be bad and it will take "extremes" to trigger alarm bells for them. Up north people push it all the time because the job has to be done and 99.99 percent of the time it works.

Of course those who live it everyday, AND SUCCEED, see it differently to those that can just stay indoors in their comfy arm chairs and sprout "it shouldn't happen" , " why did he do it", "stupid pilot" .....................

Of course there are procedures to follow but mistakes are made primarily due to:
1. Pressure on the pilot. This aviation operating culture starts when you get your com because there is always someone else who is prepared to do it. Lots of heros out there.
2. Fatigue. Generally this element is getting worse and will cause many more crashes.
3. Reducing experience levels of Captains. This will also get worse.
4. Technical failures in flight and pressure to go with NO GO items. The 'nicest' people put pressure on pilot's to go with No Go snags. A few years our CEO would phone us Captains to put pressure on us to go with no go items. He actually fired a couple of pilots telephonically. I would say to him, if you are convinced it is safe to go and as the CEO you accept responsibility, send me a fax stating that and I will depart immediately. I would then hear a click! :-) The question is, does it still happen ...... ?
There will always be Pilot Error. The question is WHY and who should be held accountable??

Rant off.
ANYWAY, I wasn't there ..........

RIP and condolences


....a very sobering post, really, do not apologize!!
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby Diesel-3 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:52 am

Looking at those graphs, I would guess at unreliable airspeed, probably pitot and static ports iced up, and loss of control.

Very similar to Air France
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby HJK 414 » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:37 am

Can someone (Bus driver ?) help me out here please.

I have been reading this with interest and do not understand.
If the Pilot loses instruments (in this case seemingly Pitots iced up / but there can be a multitude of causes)....
Why not wings level (you can use auto Pilot for that )- and manually select a high level of thrust / hand fly the plane and climb out above the crap - create time and take it from there. ??

You surely must be able to fly at a N1 thrust level that will guarantee you lift / airspeed at a limited angle of attack (climb rate).
It must be known by the Pilot at what level of thrust he will stay airborne as long as he does not try to climb too steeply.
As long as those engines are running - why not "fly" out of it?

JK
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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby jimdavis » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:45 am

I am also guessing JK - but this seems to bear similarities to the Air Frog flight that fell into the Atlantic.

I am thinking the crew were taken by surprise and possibly panicked when they saw the airspeed decreasing.

Also, if the wings were severely iced, power settings and attitudes that would normally work - simply would not do the job under those circs.

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Re: Plane with 71 on board goes missing after taking off from Moscow

Unread postby dany » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:32 pm

We got lot of respect for service providers operating in this conditions. The week prior to this,was hectic,due to extreme and unusual cold weather. For air operators it was stressfull,flights canceled, airports close and open,on top,backlog of travelers. One of those curve bals weather throws at one and sometimes it catch up with some. sadly, with this flight in perticular. The weather was busy clearing up,but still small patches extreme conditions. We not going to lay blame on anytone,how sad this tragic accident might be. They had to do go arounds on arrival due to windshear, which was reported from planes landing before them and it got worse,already late,and one crutial decision not to de-ice. With heavy snow fall already looming again I can understand why the PIC took that decision. Then severe icing,and well, I think the workload was extreme hectic in that cockpit,low altitude, struggeling with icing , white out,no horizon,and then wrong speed indicators was the last cut to the rope. There was also service crew present on this flight. RIP. Families will get a proper briefing in writing in about two to three weeks. For now all have to deal with pain and sorrow and no burial. It will take month,s (now estimate maybe up to 6 month,s due to severe tissue damage,and on top, burned and charred.)



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