SAA in Business rescue

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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by CMW » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:49 am

ArthurDent wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:00 am
Darren wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:21 pm
In other words, you can't shout from the sidelines and expect to be taken seriously unless you have better proposals. More specifically, those proposals should be based on hard numbers or at least well-researched estimates so that we can accurately compare options on a like-for-like basis.
Well, that requirement would take care of about 99% of the posts on this and some other threads.
Darren wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:21 pm

Where we diverge is over the question of what makes for good policy versus what would make us all feel better.

Policy is difficult, it has to take all sorts of related factors into account, and it's often deeply unsatisfying because the only viable options are usually compromises where nobody gets everything they wanted. Policymakers don't have the luxury of just saying 'suck it up' to the public or saying there are no solutions, nor can they ignore negative economic effects. After all, everything is connected, so as just one example a failing SAA could knock SAA into a recession, which would further cut down tax revenues and actually leave us worse off than keeping the airline on life support a bit longer. They have to muddle along and find the set of policies that reduces risk the most while not harming present and future growth.

It's is deeply unfair, not to mention counter-productive, to criticise those creating and executing national economic policy without also taking into account the very real constraints they have to work with. To be clear that doesn't mean they've above criticism, just that it should be informed criticism that points out how they could be doing a better job at a systemic level.
Policy on SOE debt and mismanagement is one thing, bringing it down to SAA's operational level means deciding what you want SAA to be. It cannot both be a political tool (employment agency, BEE supplier champion, BEE cadet employer, strategic air asset flying politically important routes at a loss) and be a profitable airline. The margins in our business are just too small to force a small airline to carry such a large social responsibility.

All the SOE's have been forced/encouraged to over-employ and to procure through BEE companies or "partnerships"(which just means the BEE company takes a cut without any value added at all). Couple that with questionable management ability and theft on a grand scale, and there was never any chance of any SOE being profitable.

I think some of the posters on this thread have lost sight of the bigger picture. You might think SA is an ordinary, modern democracy where sound financial principles carry weight and the white population is seen as an asset (even if only for their tax contribution), but you would be wrong.

It is only once you move away from this and look in from the outside when you see the full picture. Moaning about the money being sunk into Escom, SAA, SABC, PostOffice, etc only makes you unhappy. It will not change anything. Rather take your indignation and go somewhere where it might mean something. This thread is already beyond 30 pages of almost religious agreement of how SAA should be closed down (and the undertone of teaching those arrogant, overpaid pilots a lesson in humility), and it all means f-all. SAA has already lost hundreds of pilots who got tired of working for an organisation as described above and will in future lose hundreds more, but I cannot see it closing down. The political price is too high and the opinions of white South Africans don't count.
I think you have it spot on. But, as Margret Thatcher is reputed to have commented on socialism, the problem is that eventually you run out of other people's money. I would also be surprised if the government closes SAA, even if it clearly in rigor mortis. Sadly, the only long term outcome is that it, and the other SOEs will take the country down with them. The money has to run out sometime and someone will have to pay - politics, however well intended, can never be divorced from economics.

I'd love to be proven wrong on all of this, and that the turnaround is at hand, but the trajectory since around 2005 up to and including last night's SONA, has not exactly been encouraging.
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by HJK 414 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:08 pm

ArthurDent wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:00 am
……...
I think some of the posters on this thread have lost sight of the bigger picture. You might think SA is an ordinary, modern democracy where sound financial principles carry weight and the white population is seen as an asset (even if only for their tax contribution), but you would be wrong.
………….

Arthur Dent,

Nothing personal - and the quote is only to explain the comment.

I think that we have indeed lost the "bigger picture".

There are Millions of people in South Africa that do not have a decent home - or a daily meal - or a car or an aeroplane - let alone are able to feed their children a decent meal three times a day ……. THAT is the bigger picture.
That BEE was intended to drag a large part of the population out of the poverty and out of a miserable existence has nothing to do with the cadres hijacking that "liberty" and through their "connections" and "entitlement" made use of the "opportunity".

The fact that so much money is being thrown at SAA (that is this thread ! ) (or the other SOE's if you wish) is taking away those funds from people that could build an existence or at least some comfort in their daily life from it. THAT is the bigger picture.

And whether they have to "carry the can a little longer due to the effects on the economy", or whether it is simply a Political game to avoid SAA "failing on their watch" is irrelevant ……. the economy is in trouble and they need every possible tax Rand to better the lives of a lot of people - and that is not happening (not enough and not fast enough).

That will erode the fabric of that society and the consequences of such are much harsher than a fiscal problem.

JK
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by ArthurDent » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:52 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:08 pm

That will erode the fabric of that society and the consequences of such are much harsher than a fiscal problem.

JK
Just confirm that you actually live in SA or have something to do with the country. Just to establish your locus standi so to speak.
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by HJK 414 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:47 pm

ArthurDent wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:52 pm
HJK 414 wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:08 pm

That will erode the fabric of that society and the consequences of such are much harsher than a fiscal problem.

JK
Just confirm that you actually live in SA or have something to do with the country. Just to establish your locus standi so to speak.
AD,

Miskien moet ons verder gaan in Afrikaans ?

Sorry Mods - old habit - dragged down to reacting ……. #-o .

JK
Last edited by HJK 414 on Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by GL » Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:03 pm

JOHANNESBURG, Feb 14 (Reuters) - A bid by two trade unions to block job cuts at South African Airways (SAA) was rejected by the country's labour court on Friday.

SAA is fighting for survival after being placed under a form of bankruptcy protection in December.

The unions argued that SAA’s administrators sought to accelerate job cuts outside of a 60-day mandatory consultation period.

“It is this court’s conclusion that SAA has not contemplated dismissal and the duty to consult within the contemplation of section 183 (1) of the labour Relations Act did not arise,” Judge Graham Moshoana said in his televised judgment.

“Since the duty to consult has not arisen, the powers of this court to compel a fair procedure and or interdicting and restraining SAA are severely circumscribed.”

“For all the above reason’s the application must fail, the judge said.

The two unions are the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa and South African Cabin Crew Association. (Reporting by Nqobile Dludla; editing by David Evans and Jason Neely)
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by A Darter » Fri Feb 14, 2020 5:01 pm

In other news....

Flight Centre selling SAA tickets again

https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Industr ... n-20200214?

"Flight Centre Travel Group has decided to start selling South African Airways tickets again as its preferred travel insurer has reinstated travel supplier insolvency cover to the state-owned airline.

The travel supplier insolvency benefit covers the failure of an airline when it declares bankruptcy.

Siviwe Dongwana, one of the joint business rescue practitioners of SAA, told Fin24 on Friday that they are thrilled about the TIC decision.

"Customers can now purchase tickets with renewed confidence that they are protected on every step of their journey through either TIC or Bryte insurance," said Dongwana."
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by grjplanes » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:47 pm

https://www.flysaa.com/hk-traveladvisory

From this, then clear that JNB-CPT goes to 4 daily (3 x narrowbody + 1x widebody), and Mango expected to start ELS.

After seeing this, played around a bit with schedules and found the following also:

Looks like LAD continues for now, EBB continues as SA code operated by Airlink E190, LVI continues but with reduced to 4 weekly.
NBO also reduced to daily service (from 10 weekly)
VFA back to narrowbody, no more widebody flights

A330-300s scheduled for daily JNB-LHR, JNB-ACC-IAD, JNB-LOS

A350-900s scheduled for daily JNB-JFK, JNB-FRA and some JNB-MRU, JNB-CPT in between

A340-300 scheduled for daily JNB-PER and some JNB-MRU.

These checked for travel in May.

...A330-200 only scheduled for the few JNB-GRU and JNB-MUC that continues in March/April...after that no more A330-200 flight found scheduled anywhere...
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by African Flyer » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:56 pm

grjplanes wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:47 pm
https://www.flysaa.com/hk-traveladvisory

From this, then clear that JNB-CPT goes to 4 daily (3 x narrowbody + 1x widebody), and Mango expected to start ELS.

After seeing this, played around a bit with schedules and found the following also:

Looks like LAD continues for now, EBB continues as SA code operated by Airlink E190, LVI continues but with reduced to 4 weekly.
NBO also reduced to daily service (from 10 weekly)
VFA back to narrowbody, no more widebody flights

A330-300s scheduled for daily JNB-LHR, JNB-ACC-IAD, JNB-LOS

A350-900s scheduled for daily JNB-JFK, JNB-FRA and some JNB-MRU, JNB-CPT in between

A340-300 scheduled for daily JNB-PER and some JNB-MRU.

These checked for travel in May.

...A330-200 only scheduled for the few JNB-GRU and JNB-MUC that continues in March/April...after that no more A330-200 flight found scheduled anywhere...
Could the A330-200 not do the LAD flights?
Better than having them sitting on the ground
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by grjplanes » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:10 pm

African Flyer wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:56 pm
grjplanes wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:47 pm
https://www.flysaa.com/hk-traveladvisory

From this, then clear that JNB-CPT goes to 4 daily (3 x narrowbody + 1x widebody), and Mango expected to start ELS.

After seeing this, played around a bit with schedules and found the following also:

Looks like LAD continues for now, EBB continues as SA code operated by Airlink E190, LVI continues but with reduced to 4 weekly.
NBO also reduced to daily service (from 10 weekly)
VFA back to narrowbody, no more widebody flights

A330-300s scheduled for daily JNB-LHR, JNB-ACC-IAD, JNB-LOS

A350-900s scheduled for daily JNB-JFK, JNB-FRA and some JNB-MRU, JNB-CPT in between

A340-300 scheduled for daily JNB-PER and some JNB-MRU.

These checked for travel in May.

...A330-200 only scheduled for the few JNB-GRU and JNB-MUC that continues in March/April...after that no more A330-200 flight found scheduled anywhere...
Could the A330-200 not do the LAD flights?
Better than having them sitting on the ground
Don't think LAD is that great anymore, has been operating mostly with A320 for a while now, and only 4 weekly...and it was one of the mentioned routes last week to be dropped (together with EBB and LVI).

This gives the idea that the A330-200s might actually maybe leaving the fleet.

That could mean the long-haul fleet could en up being the 4 x A350-900 + 5 x A330-300 and 2 or 3 A340-300 (for now).

The remaining short-haul need is for up to maximum 22 daily departures from JNB (3 x CPT, 2 x WDH, 3 x HRE, 1 x VFA, 3 x MPM, 3 x LUN, 1 x LVI, 1 x LLW, 2 x DAR, 1 x NBO, 1 x LAD, 1 x FIH)...but even that isn't all daily.
So surely the 10 x A320 and 7 x A319 is too much...thus chances good that some of those go over to Mango...considering some of the above mentioned routes has now also been applied for by Mango.
Last edited by grjplanes on Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by Richard Smit » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:16 pm

The A330-200 is a super versatile aircraft, that in my opinion, is well suited to an airline in SAA’s re-invention state.

It’s got legs, it’s fuel efficient, and can go into both large and small airports.

Maybe exactly what SAA should ONLY be operating?
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by African Flyer » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:33 pm

Richard Smit wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:16 pm
The A330-200 is a super versatile aircraft, that in my opinion, is well suited to an airline in SAA’s re-invention state.

It’s got legs, it’s fuel efficient, and can go into both large and small airports.

Maybe exactly what SAA should ONLY be operating?
Perhaps. They would have to cancel New York though
Last edited by African Flyer on Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by African Flyer » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:38 pm

grjplanes wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:10 pm
African Flyer wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:56 pm
grjplanes wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:47 pm
https://www.flysaa.com/hk-traveladvisory

Looks like LAD continues for now, EBB continues as SA code operated by Airlink E190, LVI continues but with reduced to 4 weekly.
Could the A330-200 not do the LAD flights?
Better than having them sitting on the ground
Don't think LAD is that great anymore, has been operating mostly with A320 for a while now, and only 4 weekly...and it was one of the mentioned routes last week to be dropped (together with EBB and LVI).
Do you think Airlink will do the 2am LAD flight too?
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by Richard Smit » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:46 pm

African Flyer wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:33 pm
Richard Smit wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:16 pm
The A330-200 is a super versatile aircraft, that in my opinion, is well suited to an airline in SAA’s re-invention state.

It’s got legs, it’s fuel efficient, and can go into both large and small airports.

Maybe exactly what SAA should ONLY be operating?
Perhaps. They would have to cancel New York though
Not if SAA tech-stops at Sal island.
It will reduce total fuel burn, and completely eliminate any performance limitations out of JNB, or JFK.

For an additional 45 minutes to the entire flight, I think it’ll work.
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by pwnel » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:11 am

Richard Smit wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:46 pm
Not if SAA tech-stops at Sal island.
It will reduce total fuel burn, and completely eliminate any performance limitations out of JNB, or JFK.

For an additional 45 minutes to the entire flight, I think it’ll work.
And have 45min of descent and noise and lights on - tech stop - another 45min to altitude before all quiet again. In the middle of a 15 hour flight when you're finally getting some sleep? No thank you.

The one benefit of SA203/204 on A340 and A350 is that it avoids all that compared to flying over Europe. Substantial impact on passenger demand if you ask me.
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Re: SAA in Business rescue

Unread post by LongRangeCruise » Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:40 am

All Lad flights will be a codeshare with Taag from 01 March. According to Flysaa.com

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