Corona Virus

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heisan
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by heisan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:40 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:46 pm
Italy went in lockdown on 9th March / that means they are now in the 18th day …….
total cases close to 75000
total deaths - over 7000 people ……… that is close to 10%
Yet new cases today - 5210 people
Again, you are mis-reading these numbers. 'Cases' are confirmed infections - i.e. they have been tested and confirmed positive for the disease.

The Italian health care system is completely overwhelmed, and they have been mostly testing hospital admissions. As they continue testing others, the numbers keep going up - not necessarily because more people are infected, but because more people have been tested and confirmed to be infected.

And even if there really were 5000 new infections, that would still be fairly good, as it implies R=0.4 i.e. the disease is burning out.
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by paulw » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:02 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:46 pm
......We did not drive back to Germany for fear of jumping from the frying pan into the fire ……


How are they getting infected if everyone is indoors and has been for 18 days?


JK
Yes, Germany is doing a lot better and is something I still don't understand. Why is Belgium doing better than Netherlands and they are neighbours.
Same with some other EU countries.
And thats looking at death rates not infected as infected rates could be that they test more or test less.

I see Spain still has an exponential growth which should have become linear by now.

I guess that the continue of infections are the essential workers spreading it. Health and other workers.
But I get you, if so, why can they still spread it?

Just some reasoning and absolutely no idea if it is indeed the case.

The average is apparently 5 days but can be 14 days.

Scenario:
Person 1 get infected day 1. Show symptoms after 10 days and go to hospital. Test positive and infect person 2
Person 2 got infected and now take 10 days to show symptoms and go to GP/hospital and infect Person 3
Person 3 got infected and now take 10 days to show symptoms and go.....
(some of these are health workers and or staff at a pharmacy and carry the virus home to family, etc, etc)

Therefore it takes longer than 3 weeks to stop the spread of the virus. It took 3 months in China with their serious lockdown and citizens who are more prone to be disciplined than some westerners.

I therefore do not believe the 3 week lockdown in SA will be just 3 weeks. It will be longer. Same for other countries.
There is no lockdown in Ireland which I believe is a dumb move. Government should put it in place ASAP.
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by paulw » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:04 pm

SNIPER wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:03 pm
https://www.covidvisualizer.com/
Just touch anywhere on the map for the latest update.
My McAfee came up with a warning if I use the link.
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by snoopy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:08 pm



:smt023
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by HJK 414 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:29 pm

heisan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:40 pm

Again, you are mis-reading these numbers. 'Cases' are confirmed infections - i.e. they have been tested and confirmed positive for the disease.

The Italian health care system is completely overwhelmed, and they have been mostly testing hospital admissions. As they continue testing others, the numbers keep going up - not necessarily because more people are infected, but because more people have been tested and confirmed to be infected.

And even if there really were 5000 new infections, that would still be fairly good, as it implies R=0.4 i.e. the disease is burning out.

Justin,

I am sorry, I don't get it.
The incubation time is max of 14 days (average time to develop symptoms 5 to 7 days though)
Average patient is ill for 5 to 7 days …. and will be free of Virus and immune after 9

Does that not mean that almost every person that went into lockdown infected - (the lockdown prevented further infections on a large scale) - should be either recovered or treated in hospital as a serious case by now ?

As for R.naught, I have no idea what that is for this disease …

Sorry - I may be testing your patience here

JK
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by heisan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:16 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:29 pm
heisan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:40 pm

Again, you are mis-reading these numbers. 'Cases' are confirmed infections - i.e. they have been tested and confirmed positive for the disease.

The Italian health care system is completely overwhelmed, and they have been mostly testing hospital admissions. As they continue testing others, the numbers keep going up - not necessarily because more people are infected, but because more people have been tested and confirmed to be infected.

And even if there really were 5000 new infections, that would still be fairly good, as it implies R=0.4 i.e. the disease is burning out.

Justin,

I am sorry, I don't get it.
The incubation time is max of 14 days (average time to develop symptoms 5 to 7 days though)
Average patient is ill for 5 to 7 days …. and will be free of Virus and immune after 9

Does that not mean that almost every person that went into lockdown infected - (the lockdown prevented further infections on a large scale) - should be either recovered or treated in hospital as a serious case by now ?

As for R.naught, I have no idea what that is for this disease …

Sorry - I may be testing your patience here

JK
OK. From the death rate on the day before lockdown, we can estimate around 74k infections at that point. Of which, around 17k were likely newly infected on that day.

For those 17k people, the incubation period is 5-14 days. After which the disease becomes symptomatic. From then, the disease runs its course in another 5-7 days - but if you require hospital care, it is usually after around 5 days.

So hospital admissions for people infected on the last day before lockdown will be between 10-19 days into lockdown - but this is for 'average' cases, so a few % will be even beyond this. So the next 2 days should see the end of the peak rate of hospitalisations, and it should taper off from there. After that, there will still be a few from the long tail, and a few actual new infections, but it should reduce rapidly.

In a case like Italy, where testing is so far behind, the first indication of a decrease in infections will be a decrease in the death rate. Since the average death is 18 days after infection, that should start flattening off from the 27th - which will give the first real measurement of the effectiveness of the lockdown.

As for R0, the US figures give a remarkably consistent estimate of 4.8. But any number < 1 is good, as it means that every infection results i(on average) in less than 1 new infection - so the total number of infections goes down. The lower the R value, the quicker it dies out.
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by paulw » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:03 am

US just passed China as the country with the most infections.

Total Global now 526k from somewhere around 450k (EDIT: YESTERDAY) morning (Don't remember exactly how many)

We will reach 600k tomorrow.
Last edited by paulw on Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by paulw » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:15 am

heisan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:16 pm
So the next 2 days should see the end of the peak rate of hospitalisations, .....
I agree. The exponential growth will change to linear growth
heisan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:16 pm
and it should taper off from there. After that, there will still be a few from the long tail, and a few actual new infections, but it should reduce rapidly.
I disagree. I foresee a linear infection rate for the few weeks , in other words, if the peak is tomorrow and the daily infection or death rate (which ever you measure) is say 500 per day, then for the next 2-3 weeks the daily increase will vary around 500 per day (as to exponentially 350..400...450..500...per day) and then only will it go logarithmic, in other words start reducing to 450...400..350...300...250...etc per day till we get a fairly flat increase of minimal per day and eventually nothing.

Infection increase in most countries (which will vary depending on testing and other factors are between 20-40% in the exponential phase. Spain and Ireland is around 20% increase per day at the moment. SA is a bit higher around 30-40% at the moment.

Just my 2c. I am no expert.....
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by andrem » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:07 am

Check out Indo and Greece compared to SA
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by Deanw » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:11 am

27 March 2020

This morning, we wake South Africans up with sad news that we now have our first deaths resulting from COVID-19.

These two deaths occurred in the Western Cape. One at a Private Hospital and the other at a Public Hospital.

We will give more details later on, when we announce the latest confirmed COVID-19 cases, which have increased from yesterday’s number and have tipped the 1000 mark.

Dr Zwelini Mkhize Minister of Health
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by MadMacs » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:13 am

I'm not old, I'm 18 with 46 years of experience :D
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by Fransw » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:32 am

andrem wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:07 am
Check out Indo and Greece compared to SA
Interesting, maybe there is truth in the tb vaccine findings.. Holding thumbs!
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by Ugly Duckling » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:55 am

Deanw wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:11 am
27 March 2020

This morning, we wake South Africans up with sad news that we now have our first deaths resulting from COVID-19.

These two deaths occurred in the Western Cape. One at a Private Hospital and the other at a Public Hospital.

We will give more details later on, when we announce the latest confirmed COVID-19 cases, which have increased from yesterday’s number and have tipped the 1000 mark.

Dr Zwelini Mkhize Minister of Health
:(
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by howzitt » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:09 am

Ugly Duckling wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:55 am
Deanw wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:11 am
27 March 2020

This morning, we wake South Africans up with sad news that we now have our first deaths resulting from COVID-19.

These two deaths occurred in the Western Cape. One at a Private Hospital and the other at a Public Hospital.

We will give more details later on, when we announce the latest confirmed COVID-19 cases, which have increased from yesterday’s number and have tipped the 1000 mark.

Dr Zwelini Mkhize Minister of Health
:(
Two weeks ago we had the same notice in the UK,Today's report from the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52056534
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Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by HJK 414 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:32 am

heisan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:16 pm

trimmed for brevity …….

As for R0, the US figures give a remarkably consistent estimate of 4.8. But any number < 1 is good, as it means that every infection results i(on average) in less than 1 new infection - so the total number of infections goes down. The lower the R value, the quicker it dies out.
Thank you for the reply …..
I may be over analysing it ….. sitting in full isolation in Spain - day 13 - and wondering whether I should drive back to Germany.
Their stats are way lower somehow.

For what it is worth,
This is the data input for Italy I look at

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Cheers

JK

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