Corona Virus

Aviation Trivia, Jokes & Humour

Moderator: Moderators

Falafel
Frequent AvComer
Posts: 716
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:47 am
Closest Airfield: FALA_LCY
Location: United Kingdom
Has liked: 108 times
Been liked: 230 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by Falafel » Fri Jul 31, 2020 7:57 am

SNIPER wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:06 pm
So what happened to the vaccine poll?
Why was it removed?
Conspiracy.... either that there may be one, isnt one, could be one, or whether people could/would use one... its all conspiracy... that and the word vaccine... it is not gender neutral perhaps... there are a number of reasons... please will you sit down and let yourself be guided :!: :!: :!: :!: :!:
These users liked the author Falafel for the post:
SNIPER
User avatar
SNIPER
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3160
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2009 10:15 am
Location: Bloemfontein
Has liked: 771 times
Been liked: 253 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by SNIPER » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:34 am

Moderators Message:
There is a thread for conspiratorial discussions, please use it.
These users liked the author SNIPER for the post (total 4):
Kobus Luttigflysouthpaulwfairy flycatcher
Si vis pacem para bellum
All it takes for evil to prevail is that good men do nothing.
User avatar
fairy flycatcher
Reaching altitude
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2005 2:05 pm
Location: In the sky somewhere... or on the ground looking up.
Has liked: 63 times
Been liked: 44 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by fairy flycatcher » Sun Aug 02, 2020 6:17 am

Moderators Message:
Content removed. Please keep conspiracies to the appropriate thread.

According to Wiki

Swiss Policy Research (SPR) or (before May 2020) Swiss Propaganda Research is a multi-language website launched in 2016, which describes itself as "an independent nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media".[1] Based on its largely conspiratorial contents and its cherry picking of questionable scientific studies, it has been categorised by some as an anti-establishment propaganda site.[2] The editors of the website are unknown, but they state that "SPR is composed of independent academics and receives no external funding."[1] Contrary to what the name 'Swiss Propaganda Research' suggests, it has been speculated that the site might not actually be managed by people from Switzerland.[3]
Criticism
The site has been criticised for spreading conspiracy theories and especially so during the times of the COVID-19 pandemic when it has become a source of misinformation and disinformation internationally.[4] SPR has been categorized by some as a tool of propaganda.[2]
In 2017 a University of Zurich report on media in Switzerland analyzed "six of the most discussed alternative media", including SPR. Daniel Vogler concluded that SPR "resorts to conspiracy theories", and its contents are mostly "pseudo-scientific".[5]
These users liked the author fairy flycatcher for the post:
paulw
Anette
http://www.hoogland.co.za
Follow those seeking the truth, run away from those who have found it
User avatar
danie.e
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3933
Joined: Sat Apr 16, 2011 9:13 pm
Closest Airfield: Henley
Location: Vereeniging
Has liked: 82 times
Been liked: 257 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by danie.e » Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:49 am

Another re-entry from quarantine:

For those who do not watch the progress of the virus on Worldometer, the trend shows clearly that worldwide the spread of the virus is slowing down. In South Africa the 7 day moving average shows a real decline.

What is interesting here is the fact that RSA has not yet reached 10,000 deaths. The doomsayers were bandying figures like 40 to 80k deaths but reality proved them wrong.
Moderators Message:
Moderated: Keep your conspiracy theories to the thread meant for it.
On the lighter side, Covid has taught people to touch their faces about 50% more than usual and one only have to stand behind a retail counter to see the various innovative ways "masks" are being adjusted and re-adjusted constantly to alleviate the irritation it causes. It is also interesting to note the "upper class" portion of our society's ladies having adapted their masks as a "social" statement with all kinds of fashions for their masks. Vivid colors that match their outfits, shape and size with the "sport" masks currenlty to be the in thing :smt040
Danie.e
Don't just stik it, Drastik it
S.A. Agent for CY Models, King Max servos and Amass servo leads. Reseller of RCGF Petrol engines, Smartfly powerboxes, SkyRC Chargers and Power Supplies - http://www.aspaviation.co.za
Falafel
Frequent AvComer
Posts: 716
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:47 am
Closest Airfield: FALA_LCY
Location: United Kingdom
Has liked: 108 times
Been liked: 230 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by Falafel » Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:22 am

danie.e wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:49 am

For those who do not watch the progress of the virus on Worldometer, the trend shows clearly that worldwide the spread of the virus is slowing down. In South Africa the 7 day moving average shows a real decline.

What is interesting here is the fact that RSA has not yet reached 10,000 deaths. The doomsayers were bandying figures like 40 to 80k deaths but reality proved them wrong. The untold misery caused by "lockdowns" has contibuted a large portion to the current "covid" death tallies we read of in the media.
... and to add to this... I drove around yesterday (yeah dont go out much)... was amazed to see no social distancing, no masks and the ever full taxi's :!: Yet again the whole thing is rather confusing because we are told some things but seeing others...
nic weskus
Frequent AvComer
Posts: 789
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2013 7:49 pm
Closest Airfield: st Helena bay
Location: St Helena bay, West Coast
Has liked: 78 times
Been liked: 36 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by nic weskus » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:26 am

Moderators Message:
Moderated: Please stick to the topic.
LEALDADE
User avatar
SNIPER
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3160
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2009 10:15 am
Location: Bloemfontein
Has liked: 771 times
Been liked: 253 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by SNIPER » Thu Aug 06, 2020 1:07 pm

Moderators Message:
Moderated: Please stick to the topic.
These users liked the author SNIPER for the post (total 2):
flysouthnic weskus
Si vis pacem para bellum
All it takes for evil to prevail is that good men do nothing.
User avatar
flysouth
1k poster
1k poster
Posts: 1850
Joined: Fri Apr 29, 2005 4:16 pm
Closest Airfield: FAGC
Location: Randburg
Has liked: 375 times
Been liked: 133 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by flysouth » Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:34 pm

From: https://dearsouthafrica.co.za/2020/08/0 ... c-failure/

BTW Mods - this is not a"theory", the facts are clear and incontrovertible!

The evidence is in: the lockdown has been a catastrophic failure

Image

Written by Ciaran Ryan
Four months into the pandemic we have a clearer picture of the social and economic impacts of the lockdown.

It’s a catastrophe. The lockdown could kill far more people than the virus. At end July 2020, SA had 8,000 deaths from just short of 500,000 confirmed cases, for a case fatality rate of 1.6%. Far more people will die this year from tuberculosis and diabetes than coronavirus.
DearSA-lockdown

Yet more people will die from poverty-induced illnesses in the years to come. An April analysis by Pandemic Data Analysis (PANDA) estimated years of life lost to the pandemic to be 14 million, or 30X more than from the virus itself.

Bear in mind that around 450,000 people die in SA each year from all causes (446,554 in 2017 and 470,396 in 2016). Coronavirus is hardly going to move this needle, even slightly.

In late March 2020, the government’s official data modellers suggested 351,000 could die from Covid-19 in South Africa. PANDA was hastily formed to challenge this wild spreadsheet modelling. The team comprises actuaries, data analysts, economists and other specialists. PANDA challenged the government’s models, suggesting that it was more likely that 10,000-20,000 would die from the virus. Based on the current figures, PANDA is right on target as the virus infection curve maps a typical epidemic decline tail.

“What has happened in the last four months is the greatest social injustice in SA’s history since apartheid,” says PANDA co-founder Nick Hudson. “The lockdown is based on bad science, poor modelling and even worse judgment on the part of the government.”

The real effects will be felt in the years to come, and it won’t be from Covid. It will be from poverty and its associated effects.

It is not difficult to understand why: an estimated 6 million South Africans have suffered income contraction so far this year, and the figure will likely rise to 10 million by September. It is well known that poverty shortens lifespan. Economist Dawie Roodt estimated roughly 300,000 deaths would arise from lockdown-induced poverty, based on examples of rising death rates in countries such as Greece after the 2008 financial collapse. There is an undeniable link between economic decline and death rates.

Yet the headlines tell us that SA has the fifth-highest number of infections in the world. That’s grossly misleading, says Hudson, and an inevitable consequence of increased testing. A more instructive statistic is to look at deaths per million of population, in which case SA ranks number 36 in the world (and 22nd in terms of absolute deaths).

With the benefit of four months’ worth of data from around the world, we now know that there was little difference between countries embracing a hard lockdown and those that didn’t. The outcomes were more or less the same. There is simply no sign of the dramatic suppression of the reproduction rate that modellers assumed. Yet government has abrogated its responsibilities to a team of data modellers and epidemiologists who seem to be top-heavy with error-prone alarmists.

Nassim Taleb, author of the Black Swan and Anti-Fragility, is dismissive of economists and advisors who suffer no harm when the advice they peddle turns out to be wrong. We are in such a time now. Advisors urging extended lockdowns, as if we are living through the Black Plague, will still draw their government-guaranteed salaries at the end of the month, dispensing their wisdom via Zoom. If they were wrong at the start of the lockdown, why should we trust them now?

When the data proves them wrong, they do what self-preservation demands: double down by warning of a second and third spike in infections, lasting perhaps years.

SA is not alone in heeding advice from sources that deserve far more scrutiny than they are getting. UK epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who had Covid-19 himself, had to walk back his original outrageous projections of 500,000 UK Covid-19 deaths, when in fact the virus has claimed less than a tenth of this.

President Donald Trump’s coronavirus czar Dr Anthony Fauci co-wrote a paper in March this year arguing (correctly) that the virus affects predominantly the old and the very sick. He predicted the mortality from Covid would not be significantly out of line with a seasonal flu. “It was remarkable that he predicted this at such an early stage in the spread of the virus,” says Hudson. “But ever since then he has been lapping up every minute of fear-mongering that he can, He’s a panic porn artist.”

Initially, most of the country seemed supportive of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s lockdown in the face of a viral attack the likes of which none of us had ever experienced. Yet we hoped it was temporary and the rights we voluntarily suspended – such as the right to work, move around freely, drink wine, smoke cigarettes, gather with friends – would be returned intact within a matter of months.

Now we’re not so sure. History teaches us that rights surrendered are seldom returned unalloyed.

Cabinet ministers and their government advisors who call for an extended lockdown based on erroneous data must be held to account. Their decisions will cause an unprecedented economic contraction of between 9% and 13% this year, but the effects in terms of poverty and declining wellness will linger for years. Blaming this on the virus and not the lockdown is the height of dishonesty.

By the end of June 2020 it was already clear that the infection curve in the Western Cape had peaked and was in decline. The same is now happening in Gauteng.

The type of modelling used in SA and elsewhere in the world is based on a completely erroneous reading of the actual data. It’s not that they lacked sufficient data on which to model their predictions. The Diamond Princess cruise ship presented data analysts with laboratory-type conditions with which to track and monitor the virus. This was a cruise ship sailing around the Pacific with 7,000 passengers, a large percentage of them old. In total, there were 12 deaths, all of them aged over 65. That’s a mortality rate of 0.2% of the ship population (in an environment in which it was difficult for anyone on self-isolate).

That presents an accurate picture of Covid’s spread in a confined environment. Yet senior academics trying to draw attention to the bogus science behind the global lockdown have been shut out of polite media circles, among them Dr Michael Levitt (born in Pretoria) of Stanford University, and Professor John Ioannidis, also of Stanford. Youtube has censored many who have questioned World Health Organisation (WHO) orthodoxy. There are dozens more senior scientists forced to get their message out on fringe podcasts and non-censored platforms. This is the “spirit of the times” in which we live, says Hudson.

Back in 1960 US-Hungarian psychiatrist Professor Thomas Szasz wrote The Myth of Mental Illness, arguing that undesirable behaviour was being medicalised and reclassified as “illness” with no science to back it up. He coined the term the “therapeutic state”. He warned us 60 years ago that the state wants dominion over our bodies and our thoughts., and would force “treatments” on us for the greater social good.

It seemed a long shot back then. Now it seems all too imminent.

Under no circumstances should a lockdown be permitted, says Hudson. “If there is a virus on the loose, people must choose their own risk-mitigation strategies. If you are afraid of the virus, then self-isolate, but you cannot force others to do the same.

“There’s something terribly wrong when you deny ordinary people agency in their own lives and their own health. People should be able to choose to stay at home, but have no right to force you to stay home. We want herd immunity, because that is how all epidemics are conquered.” It appears that the Western Cape is fast reaching that point in precisely the fashion projected by PANDA.

We need to demand our government acts on sound explanations and data. Because when this blows over and South Africans survey the wreckage, they will look for someone to blame.
These users liked the author flysouth for the post (total 8):
SNIPERfairy flycatcherdanie.eIndunanic weskusV5 - LEOpaulwElaine
User avatar
heisan
Six Tousand
Six Tousand
Posts: 6055
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 3:45 pm
Closest Airfield: Rhino Park
Location: Pretoria
Has liked: 40 times
Been liked: 344 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by heisan » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:17 pm

flysouth wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:34 pm
From: https://dearsouthafrica.co.za/2020/08/0 ... c-failure/

BTW Mods - this is not a"theory", the facts are clear and incontrovertible!

...

We need to demand our government acts on sound explanations and data. Because when this blows over and South Africans survey the wreckage, they will look for someone to blame.
While it may not be a conspiracy theory, it is definitely not a particularly well researched article...

Some easy examples:

"At end July 2020, SA had 8,000 deaths from just short of 500,000 confirmed cases, for a case fatality rate of 1.6%. Far more people will die this year from tuberculosis and diabetes than coronavirus."

While the deaths at the moment are relatively low, you can't use that as an excuse to say the lockdown was not needed. Numbers would have been far, far higher without the lockdown (which of course is largely the point of the lockdown).

"PANDA challenged the government’s models, suggesting that it was more likely that 10,000-20,000 would die from the virus. Based on the current figures, PANDA is right on target as the virus infection curve maps a typical epidemic decline tail."

PANDA's numbers have been blown out of the water a long time ago. We have already seen close to 10,000 official deaths (probably double that in excess deaths). If the infection follows the same curve as every other country so far, and if death rates turn around immediately (impossible), we would still see an additional 1.3x the current infections. So that is a bare minimum of around 23,000 given an impossible pre-condition - so it must be even higher. And those are the official numbers. Actual deaths probably at least 50% more as well. So the most optimistic case from here is about double the most pessimistic PANDA estimate. (And then PANDA's estimate was with no lockdown - so it is actually laughably far off.)

"The Diamond Princess cruise ship presented data analysts with laboratory-type conditions with which to track and monitor the virus. This was a cruise ship sailing around the Pacific with 7,000 passengers, a large percentage of them old. In total, there were 12 deaths, all of them aged over 65. That’s a mortality rate of 0.2% of the ship population (in an environment in which it was difficult for anyone on self-isolate)."

This is a brilliant piece of illogic... 7,000 passengers, of which, only 10% were infected, because they LOCKED DOWN the ship :D (groups of pax and crew were kept in different parts of the ship to limit spread). Of those infected, 2% died (which is indeed not representative of the population as a whole, as most of the pax on board were old). If the infection was allowed to spread uncontrolled, the final numbers would undoubtedly be much higher. So somehow they are trying to argue that the proven reduction in the spread of the virus by restricting the movement of pax, somehow proves that a lockdown is not required?
These users liked the author heisan for the post (total 2):
Darrenkudu177
Justin Schoeman

ZU-FSR (Raven)
User avatar
paulw
Fife Thousand feet
Fife Thousand feet
Posts: 5158
Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2011 3:48 pm
Closest Airfield: Galway Airport
Location: Galway
Has liked: 579 times
Been liked: 203 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by paulw » Thu Aug 06, 2020 9:46 pm

Moderators Message:
Moderated: Please stick to the topic.
.
Don't believe what I post, research what I post....
They have a book on how to take my money away? When did this happen......
User avatar
Fransw
Fife Thousand feet
Fife Thousand feet
Posts: 5862
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:22 pm
Closest Airfield: Pretoria
Location: Pretoria
Has liked: 435 times
Been liked: 176 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by Fransw » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:20 pm

So the first successful vaccine is here!!! All thanks to Russia... :smt023
Falafel
Frequent AvComer
Posts: 716
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2019 11:47 am
Closest Airfield: FALA_LCY
Location: United Kingdom
Has liked: 108 times
Been liked: 230 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by Falafel » Tue Aug 11, 2020 5:38 pm

Fransw wrote:
Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:20 pm
So the first successful vaccine is here!!! All thanks to Russia... :smt023
Yup... record time... world seems somewhat subdued in terms of celebrations :wink: :wink: :wink:
vanjast
1k poster
1k poster
Posts: 1222
Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:08 pm
Closest Airfield: 200
Has liked: 23 times
Been liked: 240 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by vanjast » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:12 pm

Moderators Message:
Moderated: Keep your conspiracy theories to the thread meant for it.
User avatar
rare bird
Too Tousand
Too Tousand
Posts: 2636
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 2:47 pm
Has liked: 600 times
Been liked: 206 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by rare bird » Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:26 pm

heisan wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:17 pm
flysouth wrote:
Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:34 pm
From: https://dearsouthafrica.co.za/2020/08/0 ... c-failure/

BTW Mods - this is not a"theory", the facts are clear and incontrovertible!

...

We need to demand our government acts on sound explanations and data. Because when this blows over and South Africans survey the wreckage, they will look for someone to blame.
While it may not be a conspiracy theory, it is definitely not a particularly well researched article...

Some easy examples:

"At end July 2020, SA had 8,000 deaths from just short of 500,000 confirmed cases, for a case fatality rate of 1.6%. Far more people will die this year from tuberculosis and diabetes than coronavirus."

While the deaths at the moment are relatively low, you can't use that as an excuse to say the lockdown was not needed. Numbers would have been far, far higher without the lockdown (which of course is largely the point of the lockdown).

"PANDA challenged the government’s models, suggesting that it was more likely that 10,000-20,000 would die from the virus. Based on the current figures, PANDA is right on target as the virus infection curve maps a typical epidemic decline tail."

PANDA's numbers have been blown out of the water a long time ago. We have already seen close to 10,000 official deaths (probably double that in excess deaths). If the infection follows the same curve as every other country so far, and if death rates turn around immediately (impossible), we would still see an additional 1.3x the current infections. So that is a bare minimum of around 23,000 given an impossible pre-condition - so it must be even higher. And those are the official numbers. Actual deaths probably at least 50% more as well. So the most optimistic case from here is about double the most pessimistic PANDA estimate. (And then PANDA's estimate was with no lockdown - so it is actually laughably far off.)

"The Diamond Princess cruise ship presented data analysts with laboratory-type conditions with which to track and monitor the virus. This was a cruise ship sailing around the Pacific with 7,000 passengers, a large percentage of them old. In total, there were 12 deaths, all of them aged over 65. That’s a mortality rate of 0.2% of the ship population (in an environment in which it was difficult for anyone on self-isolate)."

This is a brilliant piece of illogic... 7,000 passengers, of which, only 10% were infected, because they LOCKED DOWN the ship :D (groups of pax and crew were kept in different parts of the ship to limit spread). Of those infected, 2% died (which is indeed not representative of the population as a whole, as most of the pax on board were old). If the infection was allowed to spread uncontrolled, the final numbers would undoubtedly be much higher. So somehow they are trying to argue that the proven reduction in the spread of the virus by restricting the movement of pax, somehow proves that a lockdown is not required?
the point they were trying to make was that the lockdown has done far more damage than the virus.

I watched the interview on Business day and found the original interview to be very clear. The comparisons of the model used in the UK and Belgium seemed factual to me (I agree that this article appears somewhat jumbled - not sure where that crept in - possibly poor journalism? over-editing? who knows... deliberate? - God forbid?).

1. the point Nick Hudson was making was that the number-crunching modellers were enjoying themselves so much that, as he put it "they did not look out of the window" to tie the models to reality. (one example he used was a friend who had to carry out amputations due to diabetics finding it too difficult to get the medical treatment that could have prevented needing the amputation due to lockdowns and scare-mongering)
2. the point that Michael Avery (who was interviewing him on Business Day) made was that the decision makers have not adjusted the control measures accordingly
3. another point made was that it takes a pretty callous individual (or team of data modelers) to joke about their modelling being so far out, when it has such devastating consequences
These users liked the author rare bird for the post (total 3):
fairy flycatcherMouserpaulw
hugo_visser
Tree Tousand
Tree Tousand
Posts: 3785
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 12:16 pm
Location: Petit Airport FARA ( Benoni )
Has liked: 0
Been liked: 112 times

Re: Corona Virus

Unread post by hugo_visser » Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:12 am

OOOh Tog, NZ level change from 1 to 2 and Aucland from 1to 3.
Hugo

Return to “123.45”