Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by MadMacs » Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:16 pm

I'm not old, I'm 18 with 46 years of experience :D
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by tansg » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:46 am

Despite best attempts to reduce management culpability the information is starting to filter out.

https://www.aerotime.aero/aerotime.team ... mprovement

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... story.html

http://newsinflight.com/2019/10/03/boei ... or-737max/

The disappointing thing is the person to head Boeing's new Product & Services Safety Unit was one of the ones that worked to circumvent the the FAA oversight so as with everything the politics has influence.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by kudu177 » Tue Oct 08, 2019 6:18 pm

Excellent article in the New York Times. Written by a pilot and free of journalistic hysteria.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/18/maga ... ashes.html
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by StressMerchant » Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:10 pm

The JATR report has now been published:
https://www.faa.gov/news/media/attachme ... t_2019.pdf

I'm still working my way through it, no doubt there'll be some major debates at work on Monday. Broadly speaking:
  • Recommendation 1- Update to the Changed Product Rule: Ironically another change to the rules that define how changes are analysed.
  • Recommendation 2 - Update the regulations and guidance: Not an unexpected finding, especially since the updated guidance for 25.1309 (essentially the system safety regulation) has been in draft for over 15 years.
  • Recommendation 3 - Consistent interpretation of regulations: Not too sure how this will play out, as the interpretation of regulations is often dependent on the characteristics of the design. Could lead to more than a few headaches for the regulator.
  • Recommendation 4 - Updates to Certification Basis during the design process: No real change to the regulations, just closer enforcement.
  • Recommendation 5 - Additional resources to the FAA oversight team: No great surprise.
  • Recommendation 6 - Promotion of a safety culture: Always a good idea, sadly once the bureaucrats become involved the "safety culture" often devolves into a paperwork audit.
  • Recommendation 7 - Increased emphasis on Human Factors: Expect some major changes in this area. Potentially with retro-active implications.
  • Recommendation 8 - Improved development assurance. Basically additional checks and balances in the development process, to minimise reliance on the end gate of certification.
  • Recommendation 9 - Impact of changes on operations: Consideration of the effect on operational aspects, probably more focus on conversion training and differences training
  • Recommendation 10- Control of changes to manuals: Improved information to flight crew
  • Recommendation 11 - Impact on maintenance: Identified as a shortcoming, although not much detail supplied. Probably similar in nature to #10
A lot of stuff there, with some major implications for design and certification. I have no doubt that the 777X and the NMA are going to get the brunt of this.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by tansg » Sun Oct 13, 2019 7:23 am

Some reaction to the JATR report on Boeing and FAA's handling of the Max certification

https://leehamnews.com/2019/10/11/jatr- ... imes-says/

New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/busi ... 7-max.html just create a free account and you will be able to access the the report.

Final JATR Report https://leehamnews.com/wp-content/uploa ... t_2019.pdf
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by StressMerchant » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:20 pm

The report paints a grim picture of the certification process for the Max, but I must highlight an interesting conflict.

Most of the countries forming part of the Joint Authorities Technical Review do not have their own homegrown design standards. Their regulations will often call out Regulations such as FAR 25 or CS 25 (or equivalents for light aircraft / helicopters, etc). Many of the comments relate to the inadequacy of the FARs and the guidance material, but these are the same FARs and guidance materials that the JATR members have accepted and been applying for years.

If the recommendations are adopted, it will have major effects throughout the international industry.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by MadMacs » Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:57 am

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by richard C » Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:56 am

Wow - articulate fellow - who encapsulates months of complex argument and blame-laying into a single paragraph.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by jimdavis » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:10 pm

richard C wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:56 am
Wow - articulate fellow - who encapsulates months of complex argument and blame-laying into a single paragraph.
Richard you are being naughty. Landing on water makes you an authority of all sorts of stuff! 8)

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by richard C » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:37 pm

I am not being sarcastic - my comment is made in earnest.

Months of rhetoric and blame-shifting, with the poor, dead pilots being shouldered with the blame, and Sully distills it to its very essence:
It's not the pilots job to decode a complex fault on the hoof - he expects to be given a reliable and predictable machine to operate, whose reliability and predictability has been certified by a trustworthy authority.

Is that not the simple truth of it ?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by jimdavis » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:28 pm

richard C wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:37 pm
I am not being sarcastic - my comment is made in earnest.

Months of rhetoric and blame-shifting, with the poor, dead pilots being shouldered with the blame, and Sully distills it to its very essence:
It's not the pilots job to decode a complex fault on the hoof - he expects to be given a reliable and predictable machine to operate, whose reliability and predictability has been certified by a trustworthy authority.

Is that not the simple truth of it ?
I don't know, Richard - I just have a thing about famous people having definitive opinions everything - film stars are experts on global warming - that sort of thing.

Most of the experienced airline pilots I have spoken to about these two Boeing accidents are of the opinion that well trained and current pilots would have switched off the two trim switches and then done their trouble shooting.

I suspect there is no definitive answer and that some blame can be laid at the doors of the FAA, Boeing, the airlines involved, and the pilots. And it's a very brave man who tries to apportion percentages of blame between these role players.

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by richard C » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:39 pm

Fair enough - when I saw it was Sully, I thought "What makes him an expert ?"

I was just impressed with how articulate he was, and his brevity. He has proven his skill and crisis management abilities, and has also flown several simulations of the doomed flights.

I think he represents an above average rendition of "the reasonable man, category: airline pilot".
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by Ugly Duckling » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:24 pm

Sully was possibly forewarned of the situation in the Sim Session.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by tansg » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:35 pm

jimdavis wrote:
Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:28 pm
Most of the experienced airline pilots I have spoken to about these two Boeing accidents are of the opinion that well trained and current pilots would have switched off the two trim switches and then done their trouble shooting.
And if those 2 switches did not work as advertised, as is now being alleged in certain circles with a fair amount of evidence to back it up, then what? This whole issue tends to be very complex with a lot of misinformation from all sides, but do like that quote of Sully's
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines plane crashes on way to Nairobi

Unread post by GL » Mon Oct 14, 2019 5:13 pm

Here's Sully's Letter to the NYT:
Letter to the Editor
Capt. “Sully” Sullenberger
New York Times Magazine
Published in print on October 13, 2019

In “What Really Brought Down the Boeing 737 MAX?” William Langewiesche draws the conclusion that the pilots are primarily to blame for the fatal crashes of Lion Air 610 and Ethiopian 302. In resurrecting this age-old aviation canard, Langewiesche minimizes the fatal design flaws and certification failures that precipitated those tragedies, and still pose a threat to the flying public. I have long stated, as he does note, that pilots must be capable of absolute mastery of the aircraft and the situation at all times, a concept pilots call airmanship. Inadequate pilot training and insufficient pilot experience are problems worldwide, but they do not excuse the fatally flawed design of the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) that was a death trap. As one of the few pilots who have lived to tell about being in the left seat of an airliner when things went horribly wrong, with seconds to react, I know a thing or two about overcoming an unimagined crisis. I am also one of the few who have flown a Boeing 737 MAX Level D full motion simulator, replicating both accident flights multiple times. I know firsthand the challenges the pilots on the doomed accident flights faced, and how wrong it is to blame them for not being able to compensate for such a pernicious and deadly design. These emergencies did not present as a classic runaway stabilizer problem, but initially as ambiguous unreliable airspeed and altitude situations, masking MCAS. The MCAS design should never have been approved, not by Boeing, and not by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The National Transportation Safety Board has found that Boeing made faulty assumptions both about the capability of the aircraft design to withstand damage or failure, and the level of human performance possible once the failures began to cascade. Where Boeing failed, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) should have stepped in to regulate but it failed to do so. Lessons from accidents are bought in blood and we must seek all the answers to prevent the next one. We need to fix all the flaws in the current system — corporate governance, regulatory oversight, aircraft maintenance, and yes, pilot training and experience. Only then can we ensure the safety of everyone who flies.
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