SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

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SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by snoopy » Tue Jan 14, 2020 1:35 pm

But there is more...said the ad. :arrow:

All smartphones, GSM communication devices are going to be worthless if the whole SA communication infrastructure tumbles over, which is very likely ...in this future scenario.

Eskom tells municipalities to prepare for stage 8 load-shedding
BusinessTech; 13 January 2020

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/3 ... dding.html
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by meerlanden » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:17 pm

might sound funny but I installed a CB Radio in my car again and at my home as a backup and works well. The dust was "2cm thick" though. Might come in handy as Plan B or C...
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by Marius Schrenk » Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:10 pm

meerlanden wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:17 pm
might sound funny but I installed a CB Radio in my car again and at my home as a backup and works well. The dust was "2cm thick" though. Might come in handy as Plan B or C...
:D But where would you find "n maaitjie vir v n praaitjie"? :wink: Sorry okay I see you are from Amsterdamp.....local joke. :roll:
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by V5 - LEO » Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:21 pm

....very good to have a CB as back-up, handheld or smaller units in car when critical services needs to happen or arises, on the farm it is standard, and keeps you in communicado with workforce as well as neighbours -, safe and practical.
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by snoopy » Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:52 pm

It just took one stage 6 cycle to take out a number of GSM towers in our area...so a repeat performance of anything similar will result in the same. And well if it goes to stage 8, its tickets for the GSM ISPs, and anything relying on long distance radio based broadband.

As for smart city concepts deploying in SA? Not a chance, that will happen in reality in this scenario.
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by meerlanden » Tue Jan 14, 2020 4:53 pm

Thanks V5 - LEO for your support :-)

@Marius - you will be amazed how far these radios can sometimes transmit under good propagation. Your "nuwe maatjie" can sometimes even be across the borders or on another continent.

Back in SA I always had a radio in the bakkie for emergencies and the occasional chat with someone in range. The more alternatives to the cell the better I always say. Nowadays you can buy very advanced CB's that have a feature to stop the disturbing noise unless there is a caller (ASQ/auto squelch), etc....yes it's old technology but finding it's use again today. And these radios do not consume too much electricity, I have a LIPO battery 12V, 30 000 mah fully charged at all times in case 220 goes off. That's sufficient for a while.

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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by snoopy » Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:54 am

CB radios are still used as low tech but very capable radio nets for farm security. As it doesn't rely or repeater towers. :idea:

If we get to the 10 hour load shedding stage per day, well then we are going to have to consider and live the way they live and work in Zim. Plain and simple. A lot of adaptation to lifestyle is going to have to happen then. No water or fuel for most of the day, unless you run pumps on gennies for 10 hours a day ( which run on fuel) which will inflate the price at the pump etc.

Who would ever have thought we would even be talking about this in SA context - 40 years ago, when "miraculously" everything worked and cost far less.

Dis maar 'n besonderse fokapie :lol:
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by rainier » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:36 am

I tend to be on the optimistic side.
Eskom in its current form is a dinosaur no matter how you look at it. Even Medupi and Kusile are yesterdays tech and actually out of place.
In a way it is good that things are breaking down - it spurs innovation. There is plenty of scope for decentralized power generation in many forms (not just wind and solar) that can be a bit kinder to our atmosphere.
Just keep the rather useless Government out of it - leave it to real entrepreneurs and things will happen.

Interesting how a major First World country is actually managing very successfully to wean itself off coal (The UK). Things are happening and they are good. It's actually fostering a completely new kind of industry and doing so very well.

We can do that too. Even better since we have a great resource the UK has not got (Ample sunlight).

Despite the inconvenience of load shedding I remain on the positive side - even believing the load shedding is a good thing if seen in the longer time context. A necessary trigger to something better.

My own private house were I live is shortly going to become an officially approved IPP with enough capacity to supply up to 20 average households during most days. I am carbon negative. And I am not the only one...
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by snoopy » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:53 pm

We can do that too.


Oh yes, but we dont - most of our tax money has been invested in what is now the most expensive new coal fired power stations in the world....and they dont work properly. :lol:

And lets not forget - there was always a nuclear option (zero carbon footprint) instead of more coal, but no....

Daars nie pille vir daai nie... :idea:

But I like your optimism, I love SA's sunlight. :wink: The dark periods in every cycle of 24 hours is another issue...of course. Especially in winter...as any solar pv installer worth their money should tell you. You wont get near to 100% of generation capacity from any solar based system in a full 24 cycle. And there is a point of no return where you will kill your expensive battery banks, unless you do your own load shedding, unless you prefer to live in a place like Putsonderwater, but then you really wont have water to survive on....no rain and lots of sunlight though, during the day.

And only ES'OM could come up with a Critical Peak Day tariff (new plan) to sustain themselves even further. Its not about SA being put first (otherwise we would be able to brag about SA's EAF) , its about keeping ES'OM afloat as an entity, at any cost...as long as it keeps going.

Critical Peak Day tariff will probably just incentivise more people to leave SA, and take ther business and money elsewhere, or spend even less money on ESKOM or municipal power in future - with more negative repercussions for SA.
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by HJK 414 » Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:52 pm

snoopy wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:53 pm

………..
And only ES'OM could come up with a Critical Peak Day tariff (new plan) to sustain themselves even further. Its not about SA being put first (otherwise we would be able to brag about SA's EAF) , its about keeping ES'OM afloat as an entity, at any cost...as long as it keeps going.
…..

Snoops - you can't have it both ways ……. [-X

Either applaud ESKOM for at least trying to serve the market / even when the plan does not meet your "approval"
Or simply sit back and endure blackouts ....... and complain all you like ……. :wink:

I do not think the Critical Day plan is all without merit .
If you divide the network in 20 or so different sectors (sector / load capacity) and get a part of that net to a low utilisation level for 20 days per annum or so (in a sequential fashion) - you would have more to go around in the other sectors. If that leads to a more sustainable power distribution - and a more reliable delivery schedule - then that would be a positive.

If the peak tariff cost (increase for consumer) balances out to zero if the consumer co-operates during the Critical Day sector shutdowns - then it is a good incentive.

And yes - I am appalled at the way it has been handled over the last 20 years as well - but let's try to see the positives if they try appear.


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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by snoopy » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:12 pm

HJK - actually the SA consumer can have it anyway they like ....total up the money squandered by ESKOM so far, and then we still talking about load shedding in 2020?

Mate get a grip on reality - the SA consumer has been screwed over for decades. Not ZAR millions, but billions of ZAR...and after that they want to come up with a new Critical Peak Day tariff - that only affects paying customers...And you think that's fair? Are you serious or are you employed by them. :lol:

They going to have to start paying the paying consumers to switch on their lights, one of these days, when all is revealed. They cant expect the SA consumer to buy them out of your own systemic corruption..We know they are corrupt, and their top management admitted that in the company also.

Now lets see ZAR 200 Billion of the consumers money, was squandred/missing by 2015. Where are we now? Where has that gone?

If a person cant cook, they shouldn't be brewing in the kitchen.
Last edited by snoopy on Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by HJK 414 » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:18 pm

snoopy wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:12 pm
HJK - actually the SA consumer can have it anyway they like ....total up the money squandered by ESKOM so far, and then we still talking about load shedding...

Mate get a grip on reality - the SA consumer has been screwed over for decades. Not ZAR millions, but billions of ZAR...and after that they want to come up with a new Critical Peak Day tariff - that only affects paying customers...And you think that's fair? Are you serious or are you employed by them. :lol:

They going to have to start paying the paying consumers to switch on their lights, one of these days, when all is revealed.
Strawman ……. :wink:

No - I am simply stating that they have to start somewhere - and if you keep pointing out the negatives of what has not been achieved yet - you can always win the debate - good on you ....... #-o

But - as stated - if the customer ends up with a zero sum by reducing his usage in his 20 days or so in that sector - I think it is a positive step.

For what it is worth...…..In Spain we can opt to pay 2 Kwh rates - or a single fixed rate

Single fixed rate is 13.8 cts / Kwh (or very close to that).

Dual rate is
Low rate 7.6 cts / Kwh from 23.00 - 11.00hrs
High rate - 15.8 cts / Kwh from 11.00 - 23.00 hrs
So - I run my pool pump in the low hours and people with E-cars charge them after 23.00 or before 11.00 hrs
Zero sum at worst - we actually pay less now ……. :idea:

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Last edited by HJK 414 on Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by snoopy » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:21 pm

Spain

Low rate 7.6 cts / Kwh from 23.00 - 11.00hrs
High rate - 15.8 cts / Kwh from 11.00 - 23.00 hrs

Go look at ESKOMs planned hours...for their latest trick, before you think its anything like Spain.

And of course they are yet to explain what they've done with the money they already over recovered from the SA consumer.
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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by HJK 414 » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:25 pm

snoopy wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:21 pm

...............….And of course they are yet to explain what they've done with the money they already over recovered from the SA consumer.
Snoops,

as long as you keep looking back … #-o ...….... we all know it was badly managed / looted ……
So be it - move on ……. get a life beyond the misery - or pack up and move ……. simple choice.

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Re: SA's fast declining energy availability factor.

Unread post by snoopy » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:31 pm

HJK 414 wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:25 pm
snoopy wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:21 pm

...............….And of course they are yet to explain what they've done with the money they already over recovered from the SA consumer.
Snoops,

as long as you keep looking back … #-o ...….... we all know it was badly managed / looted ……
So be it - move on ……. get a life beyond the misery - or pack up and move ……. simple choice.

JK
I dont see how you've proposed any solution in any way...But then you've already packed up and moved - not your problem.

So why you even reading this anyway? :lol:

No matter what you call higher tariffs - you cant expect your customers to buy you out of systemic corruption. Money wont do it. To go back a bit, The pilot project was done in 2014/15 already.
Last edited by snoopy on Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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