Corona Virus

[heisan]

An interesting article on the actual infection fatality rate, and why it is so hard to pin down:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

(Basically most studies seem to be converging on 0.5% - 1%, but with substantial error margins to either side.)

[Fransw]

India's vaccine. The race continues..
https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/wo ... t-20200704

[flysouth]

Interesting review of the timeline of events and Chinese Communist Party government responses.

[paulw]

https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/0 ... ave-doubts

"A surprising new study found the controversial antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine helped patients better survive in the hospital," reports CNN. "But the findings, like the federal government's use of the drug itself, were disputed."
A team at Henry Ford Health System in southeast Michigan said Thursday their study of 2,541 hospitalized patients found that those given hydroxychloroquine were much less likely to die. Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of infectious disease for Henry Ford Health System, said 26% of those not given hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 13% of those who got the drug. The team looked back at everyone treated in the hospital system since the first patient in March. "Overall crude mortality rates were 18.1% in the entire cohort, 13.5% in the hydroxychloroquine alone group, 20.1% among those receiving hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, 22.4% among the azithromycin alone group, and 26.4% for neither drug," the team wrote in a report published in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases.

It's a surprising finding because several other studies have found no benefit from hydroxychloroquine, a drug originally developed to treat and prevent malaria...

"Our results do differ from some other studies," Zervos told a news conference. "What we think was important in ours ... is that patients were treated early. For hydroxychloroquine to have a benefit, it needs to begin before the patients begin to suffer some of the severe immune reactions that patients can have with Covid," he added. The Henry Ford team also monitored patients carefully for heart problems, he said...

Researchers not involved with the study were critical. They noted that the Henry Ford team did not randomly treat patients but selected them for various treatments based on certain criteria. "As the Henry Ford Health System became more experienced in treating patients with COVID-19, survival may have improved, regardless of the use of specific therapies," Dr. Todd Lee of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, Canada, and colleagues wrote in a commentary in the same journal. "Finally, concomitant steroid use in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine was more than double the non-treated group. This is relevant considering the recent RECOVERY trial that showed a mortality benefit with dexamethasone." The steroid dexamethasone can reduce inflammation in seriously ill patients...

Eli Rosenberg [lead author of a New York study of hydroxychloroquine], also pointed out that the Detroit paper excluded 267 patients — nearly 10% of the study population — who had not yet been discharged from the hospital. He said this might have skewed the results to make hydroxychloroquine look better than it really was.

"There's a little bit of loosey-goosiness here in all this," he told CNN.

[paulw]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... quine.html

White House praises study that says patients given hydroxychloroquine were 50% less likely to die of COVID-19 calling it 'fantastic news' - after Trump was criticized for touting drug

[heisan]

This is a good demonstration of why random blind trials are so important. While the results here are certainly important, it will take some time to find out how statistically significant they are.

The main problem is that they applied selection criteria as to who got which medicine, but did not allocate control groups within those selection criteria. The end result is that on average, the patients who got HCQ were a lot younger than the rest. In fact, if you just look at average age and average mortality between the HCQ and no-med groups, it pretty much matches the normal mortality spread for the disease. So is the difference primarily due to age, or due to HCQ use? Unfortunately this study can't tell us, because it was so badly planned.

[heisan]

A well written article from a Doctor in SA about what he personally sees:

https://select.timeslive.co.za/news/202 ... frontline/

It seems we are rapidly approaching the point where it will become important to restrict further spread of the virus.

But this is where things will get interesting... Due to the rather 'interesting' way the 'risk adjusted strategy' was implemented, all the economic headroom and personal goodwill was used up by maintaining a hard lockdown when it was not that important to control the spread. And now that it is becoming important, there is nothing left in the tank to do it with. Will be some interesting times ahead.

[Falafel]

It seems we are rapidly approaching the point where it will become important to restrict further spread of the virus.

Amazing how you are still beating this drum... suppose the incredible progress the SA govt made during the last lockdown makes this a very beneficial and productive thing...I actually agree with lockdowns in countries where they maintain consistency and actually "lockdown" however our lockdowns will be characterised by full taxis so again I have no idea why you think this is workable in SA

[Iceberg]

It seems we are rapidly approaching the point where it will become important to restrict further spread of the virus.

Amazing how you are still beating this drum... suppose the incredible progress the SA govt made during the last lockdown makes this a very beneficial and productive thing...I actually agree with lockdowns in countries where they maintain consistency and actually "lockdown" however our lockdowns will be characterised by full taxis so again I have no idea why you think this is workable in SA

Justin is not advocating stricter lockdowns, he merely says the spread of the virus should be restricted.
Admittedly not easy in SA, but masks, social distancing etc. does really make a difference.

[SNIPER]

.

[swann morton]

Good evening fellow aviators.

We are fast approaching our peak and maximum capacity here in the North west Province. By next week most of the ICU beds will be occupied. We expect the peak to last a couple of weeks. Gauteng is maybe a week or so behind.

If your are high risk protect yourself - isolate if you can. If you doubt whether you are high risk....then there is no doubt.
The rest of us should get on with it, send your kids to school, go to work and make the most of your opportunities.

Show your support for medical staff....they need it especially the nurses, many of them are afraid.

If you feel a little down, get your plane in the air and your mood will quickly be lifted!!!

Live in hope.
Swann

02072AB6-21CD-415D-AF21-679F31323B0F.jpeg

[danie.e]

Out of quarantine for just one post:

Just been informed from a very reliable source (will not divulge names for ethical reasons) that a family member was tested and found positive for Covid 19 with the following symptoms:

1) No fever
2) Runny nose
3) Phlegmy cough of short duration
4) Slight stiffness in neck

Symptom checks would make interesting reading from other people who tested positive ?!?!?

[SNIPER]

Out of quarantine for just one post:

Just been informed from a very reliable source (will not divulge names for ethical reasons) that a family member was tested and found positive for Covid 19 with the following symptoms:

1) No fever
2) Runny nose
3) Phlegmy cough of short duration
4) Slight stiffness in neck

Symptom checks would make interesting reading from other people who tested positive ?!?!?

Just like I said " imagine a virus so deadly you have to be tested to know you have it"

[Mfezi]

Just like I said " imagine a virus so deadly you have to be tested to know you have it"

A bit like HIV then? Usually no initial symptoms, sometimes followed by a period of slight flu-like symptoms and then usually again completely asymptomatic for a long time, until it progresses to AIDS. The only way to know you have HIV is to be tested. Only killed about 32 million people, give or take a few million.

[GRAHAMW]

Autopsies on people who died of the coronavirus are helping doctors understand how the disease affects the body -- and one of the most remarkable findings concerned blood clotting, a pathologist says.

Pathologist found blood clots in 'almost every organ' during autopsies on Covid-19 patients

Autopsies on people who died of the coronavirus are helping doctors understand how the disease affects the body -- and one of the most remarkable findings concerned blood clotting, a pathologist says.
edition.cnn.com